We’ve only just finished the third week of January, and already we are seeing a level of global change that feels unprecedented.
According to the timeline of my holiday reading, it started in Iran, where the people are attempting to overthrow the Islamic Republic’s leadership, which has been in place since 1979. Thousands are reported dead, but the regime appears to be hanging on to power, just.
Elsewhere, an investigative journalist’s discovery of a series of Minnesota social services fraud schemes, some involving Somali immigrants, running into billions of dollars, has led to the state Governor – former vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz – announcing that he will stand down at the end of his term. The fraud involves abuse of government funding supporting childcare centres, and investigations are threatening to overflow into other states, including California and New York.
Meantime, a brief military operation by the United States to extricate Venezuela’s dictator President was just the start. It seems that the operation was inspired by a desire to disrupt the trafficking of drugs into the US and to access the South American country’s oil reserves.
Then came the next US target, Greenland, which to date has been an autonomous territory of Denmark. This, of course, has upset the Danes and, more importantly, their European colleagues. The ruptures are at this stage threatening the very foundations of Nato, although the US has since said it won’t use force.
With Russia’s Putin, North Korea’s Kim and China’s Xi, we are used to seeing countries led by so-called strongmen and the tactics they employ. What we’re not used to is the US playing the same game.
And it’s unsettling for all of us. Statements such as “We can’t rely on America anymore” are being rolled out by allies and opponents alike.
You see, we’re part of the club of Western liberal democracies that share similar values and strong views on what’s right and wrong. That club has traditionally been led by the US. We’ve collaborated alongside our allies for many years to ensure that the horrors of two world wars are not repeated. We’ve supported the United Nations and Nato, both of which emerged from the aftermath of World War II and both of which have contributed to a geopolitical fabric and a world order that we’ve been able to rely on.
We’re also part of a small group of nations that work together to care about the world we live in. Alongside the US, Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom, we form a part of an intelligence-sharing partnership whose links extend to a further group of European countries. From historic wars to present-day intelligence, we Kiwis box above the weight that should be attributed to a small country at the bottom of the world.
But the times are a-changing, and doing so rapidly. And the inevitable question arises: in an unsettled world, can we continue to rely on those traditional institutions to guide our societies in the best interests of our own people and humanity as a whole? As of today, the big European countries would answer that question with the words “probably not”.
So what does it matter to New Zealand anyway? It matters a lot. Those traditional relationships are critical to us. If those relationships are at risk for any reason, we should do everything possible to hold them together and to maximise every opportunity to help or be helped.
As plenty of commentators have observed, after a long and painful slump, the New Zealand economy is starting to get its act together. Business is starting to move again, inflation is down from its peak, and interest rates have followed. Consumer and business confidence is up markedly. Markets are recovering. The indicators are good.
But as always, our biggest threats are the likelihood of one or more major events occurring overseas that topple us. It’s happened before. When the world sneezes, New Zealand catches a cold. Right now, the world is coughing.
Of course, while the events listed above have been going on, we’ve been on holiday. Many of us are unlikely to have followed the Minnesota fraud or the Greenland standoff. Our attention span has been directed at the weather, a grisly murder, and a rugby coach. Then the storms came.
But we need to look up and take notice of what’s happening around us.
Most of us are used to the idea that we will work with our traditional allies. Given our levels of military and security spending over the past few decades, one could argue that we need them more than they need us.
But increasingly, the values and agendas of those allies are changing. And not just in the US.
Traditionally, our first port of call is Australia. We’ve worked together well for a long, long time. We’re of like minds. We share values, work ethic and talent. But their agenda is changing too, and those changes might be too much for us.
Before Christmas, and importantly before the Bondi terror attack, the Australian Government introduced a ban on social media for those under the age of 16. That’s a good thing to do for a whole lot of reasons.
But if that ban leads to citizens requiring a digital ID to prove they’re over 16, and if that digital ID is used to monitor online activity and behaviour of adults, such a policy risks impacting the freedoms of the majority in exchange for the protection of the minority. That’s not something we should accept.
This week, and in response to those attacks in Bondi, the same Aussie Government has introduced hate speech legislation. Again, if those laws are used to rein in those preaching terror and hatred, that’s probably a good thing. But if school teachers end up in prison, as recently happened in Ireland in a contempt of court case, then I’d suggest that that’s not the New Zealand way.
And so, while we have much in common with our colleagues from the US, Australia and elsewhere, there’s a growing risk that new differences will emerge. I’m not saying we should abandon our allies. But in this environment, we need to expect that there will be a widening range of issues on which we don’t agree.
That means we should place increased emphasis on the need to take greater control of our own destiny. Just as an impoverished Singapore decided in 1965 to transition from a vulnerable nation reliant on others to one of self-reliance, in a decision that enabled its economic stability and security, we should seek a similar vision.
In doing so, we have advantages that 1960s Singapore could only have dreamed of. We can feed our own people and, beyond that, can grow and distribute food to others. In a hungry world, that’s a massive advantage.
At a time when energy demands will only continue to grow, we are world-leading at geothermal energy, and we have access to oil and gas around our coastline that we will once more explore, find and sell. We have a burgeoning space industry which could, if we thought about it, broaden to an enhanced defence capability, offering both internal security and export opportunities.
We are in the process of rebuilding our once-broken education system, and the indications are that the capability of our people will once again become a strength. And beyond those currently in the education system, we have talented, innovative people and leaders who can deliver new ways to do things.
As we do so, we need to redefine our friend groups. Not with a view to eliminating our traditional allies. But with the knowledge that they may not be as reliable as they once were, whether that’s as consumers of our products or protectors of our position. We need to broaden our markets and maximise the opportunities with everyone.
We still need our Five Eyes partners. But, though they may disagree with each other, we also need the opportunities that the world’s biggest economies, the US, India and China, can provide.
As this most troublesome year dawns, we were reminded this week that it’s election year. And based on past performance, there’s a risk that the forthcoming poll is preceded by nine months of looking inwards, talking about ourselves, while our biggest threats are occurring outside our border and our control.
I’d like to see some vision that sets us apart. One where we stand tall for being us. Whether it’s about educating our people or looking after those who need help, we can be the best in the world. We have proven that we can innovate food supply, energy generation, tech solutions and timber production. We should look more openly at the challenges the world is facing and ask how we can enhance our place in the global community by contributing solutions to the world’s problems. We’ve done it before in theatres of war, sporting stadiums and farmable land.
It’s been said that massive change creates massive opportunity. Just imagine if this amazing little country could enrich itself by solving just some of the problems of a fracturing and rapidly changing world.
Right now, we’re probably one of the few who could.
This article first appeared in The New Zealand Herald, Saturday 24th January 2026.